The history of subaquatic volcanism recorded in the sediments of Lake Kivu; East Africa     

Kelly Ann Ross  Martin Schmid  Sandra Ogorka  Fabrice A. Muvundja  Flavio S. Anselmetti 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2015,54(1):137-152

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Decadal‐Scale Changes of the Ödenwinkelkees,Central Austria,Suggest Increasing Control of Topography and Evolution Towards Steady State          下载免费PDF全文

Jonathan L. Carrivick  Katie Berry  Martin Geilhausen  William H.M. James  Christopher Williams  Lee E. Brown  David M. Rippin  Steve J. Carver 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(3):543-562

Small mountain glaciers have short mass balance response times to climate change and are consequently very important for short‐term contributions to sea level. However, a distinct research and knowledge gap exists between (1) wider regional studies that produce overview patterns and trends in glacier changes, and (2) in situ local scale studies that emphasise spatial heterogeneity and complexity in glacier responses to climate. This study of a small glacier in central Austria presents a spatiotemporally detailed analysis of changes in glacier geometry and changes in glaciological behaviour. It integrates geomorphological surveys, historical maps, aerial photographs, airborne LiDAR data, ground‐based differential global positioning surveys and Ground Penetrating Radar surveys to produce three‐dimensional glacier geometry at 13 time increments spanning from 1850 to 2013. Glacier length, area and volume parameters all generally showed reductions with time. The glacier equilibrium line altitude increased by 90 m between 1850 and 2008. Calculations of the mean bed shear stress rapidly approaching less than 100 kPA, of the volume–area ratio fast approaching 1.458, and comparison of the geometric reconstructions with a 1D theoretical model could together be interpreted to suggest evolution of the glacier geometry towards steady state. If the present linear trend in declining ice volume continues, then the Ödenwinkelkees will disappear by the year 2040, but we conceptualise that non‐linear effects of bed overdeepenings on ice dynamics, of supraglacial debris cover on the surface energy balance, and of local topographically driven controls, namely wind‐redistributed snow deposition, avalanching and solar shading, will become proportionally more important factors in the glacier net balance.  相似文献   

Statistical modeling of extreme value behavior in North American tree-ring density series     

Elizabeth Mannshardt  Peter F. Craigmile  Martin P. Tingley 《Climatic change》2013,117(4):843-858

Many analyses of the paleoclimate record include conclusions about extremes, with a focus on the unprecedented nature of recent climate events. While the use of extreme value theory is becoming common in the analysis of the instrumental climate record, applications of this framework to the spatio-temporal analysis of paleoclimate records remain limited. This article develops a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate spatially varying trends and dependencies in the parameters characterizing the distribution of extremes of a proxy data set, and applies it to the site-wise decadal maxima and minima of a gridded network of temperature sensitive tree ring density time series over northern North America. The statistical analysis reveals significant spatial associations in the temporal trends of the location parameters of the generalized extreme value distributions: maxima are increasing as a function of time, with stronger increases in the north and east of North America; minima are significantly increasing in the west, possibly decreasing in the east, and exhibit no changes in the center of the region. Results indicate that the distribution varies as a function of both space and time, with tree ring density maxima becoming more extreme as a function of time and minima having diverging temporal trends, by spatial location. Results of this proxy-only analysis are a first step towards directly reconstructing extremal climate behavior, as opposed to mean climate behavior, by linking extremes in the proxy record to extremes in the instrumental record.  相似文献   

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France     

Florence Habets  Julien Boé  Michel Déqué  Agnès Ducharne  Simon Gascoin  Ali Hachour  Eric Martin  Christian Pagé  Eric Sauquet  Laurent Terray  Dominique Thiéry  Ludovic Oudin  Pascal Viennot 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):771-785

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.  相似文献   

Corruption in cyclone preparedness and relief efforts in coastal Bangladesh: Lessons for climate adaptation?     

Tanvir Mahmud  Martin Prowse 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):933-943

This article seeks to draw possible lessons for adaptation programmes in Bangladesh by examining whether cyclone preparedness and relief interventions are subject to corrupt practices. Based on a random sample survey of 278 households, three focus-group discussions and seven key-informant interviews, the article investigates the nature and extent of corruption in pre- and post-disaster interventions in Khulna before and after Cyclone Aila in May 2009. Ninety nine percent of households reported losses from corrupt practices. Post-disaster interventions (such as food aid and public works schemes) suffered from greater levels, and worse types, of corruption than pre-disaster interventions (such as cyclone warning systems and disaster-preparedness training). Using an asset index created using principal component analysis, the article assesses how corruption affected wealth quartiles. Ultra-poor households were affected more by corruption in pre-disaster interventions, the wealthiest quartile more in certain post-disaster interventions, in particular public works and non-governmental interventions. These findings may hold lessons for attempts to increase resilience as current adaptation measures mirror some cyclone preparedness and relief efforts.  相似文献   

A comparison of fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing to traditional methods of evaluating groundwater inflow to streams     

Martin A. Briggs  Laura K. Lautz  Jeffrey M. McKenzie 《水文研究》2012,26(9):1277-1290

There are several methods for determining the spatial distribution and magnitude of groundwater inputs to streams. We compared the results of conventional methods [dye dilution gauging, acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) differential gauging, and geochemical end‐member mixing] to distributed temperature sensing (DTS) using a fibre‐optic cable installed along 900 m of Ninemile Creek in Syracuse, New York, USA, during low‐flow conditions (discharge of 1·4 m³ s^?1). With the exception of differential gauging, all methods identified a focused, contaminated groundwater inflow and produced similar groundwater discharge estimates for that point, with a mean of 66·8 l s^?1 between all methods although the precision of these estimates varied. ADV discharge measurement accuracy was reduced by non‐ideal conditions and failed to identify, much less quantify, the modest groundwater input, which was only 5% of total stream flow. These results indicate ambient tracers, such as heat and geochemical mixing, can yield spatially and quantitatively refined estimates of relatively modest groundwater inflow even in large rivers. DTS heat tracing, in particular, provided the finest spatial characterization of groundwater inflow, and may be more universally applicable than geochemical methods, for which a distinct and consistent groundwater end member may be more difficult to identify. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Nitrous oxide production and denitrification rates in estuarine intertidal saltmarsh and managed realignment zones     

Martin S.A. Blackwell  Sirwan Yamulki  Roland Bol 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

Increasing concerns over habitat loss and rising costs of sea defence maintenance due to rising sea levels, has seen increases in the practice of managed realignment and reflooding of former reclaimed areas of intertidal saltmarsh and mudflat around the world. These practices are taking place with little knowledge of their impact on soil biogeochemical processes. Rates of denitrification (using the acetylene inhibition technique) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) production were measured from a long-established saltmarsh (SM) and an adjacent, recently re-flooded managed realignment (MR) site comprising former arable land in the estuary of the River Torridge, Devon, UK. Incubations were carried out in closed chambers in which patterns of tidal flooding were simulated automatically. Measurements were made during periods of flood and non-flood over a total of four tidal inundations with estuarine water. During the latter two flooding episodes floodwater was amended with nitrate (NO₃⁻). Nitrous oxide production in the SM soil generally was lower than in the MR soil, with mean values and standard errors over the whole incubation of 0.27 ± 0.16 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ and 0.65 ± 0.15 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ respectively. Denitrification rates demonstrated a similar trend although generally were an order of magnitude higher than N₂O production, with mean rates and standard errors of 2.88 ± 1.12 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ in the SM soil and 3.39 ± 1.16 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ in the MR soil. The data suggest that both soils are net sinks for NO₃⁻ and net sources for N₂O. Both patterns of tidal inundation and floodwater chemistry affect the process rates in each soil differently. The impact of flooding with NO₃⁻ – amended water was greater on the SM soil than the MR soil, and it is likely that decomposing vegetation buried in the accreting sediments following reflooding at the MR site were supplying a source of N in the soil, and so process rates were less dependent upon external supplies. The act of managed realignment in intertidal zones could therefore result in an increase in mean production of N₂O in intertidal zones, at least in the short term.  相似文献   

A collective approach to Pacific islands fisheries management: Moving beyond regional agreements     

Quentin Hanich  Feleti Teo  Martin Tsamenyi 《Marine Policy》2010

The sustainable management and profitable development of the Pacific island tuna fisheries is the key ocean governance challenge for the Pacific islands region in the short and medium term. Resolving these challenges is fundamental to the long term future of the region and its ability to implement oceans governance across all resource and conservation concerns.  相似文献   

Geodetic constraints on active tectonics of the Western Mediterranean: Implications for the kinematics and dynamics of the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary zone     

Philippe Vernant  Abdelali Fadil  Taoufik Mourabit  Driss Ouazar  Achraf Koulali  Jose Martin Davila  Jorge Garate  Simon McClusky  Robert Reilinger 《Journal of Geodynamics》2010,49(3-4):123-129

We present GPS observations in Morocco and adjacent areas of Spain from 15 continuous (CGPS) and 31 survey-mode (SGPS) sites extending from the stable part of the Nubian plate to central Spain. We determine a robust velocity field for the W Mediterranean that we use to constrain models for the Iberia-Nubia plate boundary. South of the High Atlas Mountain system, GPS motions are consistent with Nubia plate motions from prior geodetic studies. We constrain shortening in the Atlas system to <1.5 mm/yr, 95% confidence level. North of the Atlas Mountains, the GPS velocities indicate Nubia motion with respect to Eurasia, but also a component of motion normal to the direction of Nubia-Eurasia motion, consisting of southward translation of the Rif Mountains in N Morocco at rates exceeding 5 mm/yr. This southward motion appears to be directly related to Miocene opening of the Alboran Sea. The Betic Mountain system north of the Alboran Sea is characterized by WNW motion with respect to Eurasia at ～1–2 mm/yr, paralleling Nubia-Eurasia relative motion. In addition, sites located in the Betics north of the southerly moving Rif Mountains also indicate a component of southerly motion with respect to Eurasia. We interpret this as indicating that deformation associated with Nubia-Eurasia plate motion extends into the southern Betics, but also that the Betic system may be affected by the same processes that are causing southward motion of the Rif Mountains south of the Alboran Sea. Kinematic modeling indicates that plate boundary geometries that include a boundary through the Straits of Gibraltar are most compatible with the component of motion in the direction of relative plate motion, but that two additional blocks (Alboran-Rif block, Betic Mountain block), independent of both Nubia and Eurasia are needed to account for the motions of the Rif and Betic Mountains normal to the direction of relative plate motion. We speculate that the southward motions of the Alboran-Rif and Betic blocks may be related to mantle flow, possibly induced by southward rollback of the subducted Nubian plate beneath the Alboran Sea and Rif Mountains.  相似文献   

The perceptions of local fishermen towards a hotel managed marine reserve in Vietnam     

Patrik Svensson  Lynda D. Rodwell  Martin J. Attrill 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(3):114-122

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) often fail to meet ecological, social or economic objectives due to lack of effective management by government institutions. Partly in response to this failure, a number of marine reserves managed by the private sector, Hotel Managed Marine Reserves (HMMRs), have recently been established. In this study, we investigate changes to the social and economic conditions faced by local fishermen, following the establishment of two small reserves adjacent to a hotel in Vietnam, as well as their perceptions of the reserves' ability to produce spillover. The findings are used to gauge management performance and effectiveness of the HMMRs. Two surveys with different survey designs, targeting fishermen with different fishing techniques, produced conflicting results. Fishermen mainly dependent on beach seining mostly opposed the HMMRs and the prospect of more protected areas being established. Fishermen using other fishing techniques were generally in favor of the HMMRs, welcoming more protection and confirming spillover of fish, including large food fishes.  相似文献